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Post by Otisander on Sept 26, 2023 14:27:56 GMT -8
its possible that Aria is telling the truth, that she isn't the HL and that we're barking up the wrong tree. did she actually admit to going to Quil's place n1? i can't recall that she actually did or was that a "process of elimination quil thought" thing? i was taking strict notes early on in the game, i gave that up bc it was too much work orz now, its also possible that Ar(c)a lied about being the medium and Ara is doubling down on it hardcore--but what i know of Arca, this is unlikely. i know i met with Taylor n1 and n2, so i KNOW they are safe from being the HL. and everyone else went to Quil's place n1 to hang. which is bonkers--but i truly believe it happened. what does that mean? 5 people went to Quil's place. Steex, Uber, Aria, Bee, Trip.
One of those names is the HL. Trip, we know, is/was(unless he was the one converted last night) the Night Nurse. Bee was allegedly attacked n2. Uber has been very forthcoming about their memery. and Steex is still alive.Steex can be vouched for by two different people (Trip, who cannot be HL, and Ara from what I've gathered edit: got ninja'd by the confirmation, whoops) for having stayed in Last Night, making them hardcleared of being HL, as they could only convert one of them to be getting a 'forged' visit vouch. Not to mention that if Steex was HL, they would have been publicly broadcasting that they'd stay inside, only to go out and attempt a conversion Two Days/Nights In A Row!! There's a point where the risk just becomes too much to justify Any reward, and I think that that sort of behavior – especially for a solo HL – would cross that point twice-over. Given by how consistently and strongly Bee has/had been giving off Big Goth Energy, I'm inclined to believe that their saveclaim D2 was genuine – although given that I am most sure that they were the one to be converted Last Night, I wouldn't necessarily oppose a Bee vote Today (since the Headliner cannot convert two Nights in a row, the order in which we vote out the Headliner and Groupie doesn't matter for Right Now so long as we vote both of them out back to back). edit: Especially because we know that neither would have Any Bond with anybody whatsoever given how Date reporting has gone this game, so a Date With Death isn't an immediate threat for us at this stage. Whether or not y'all believe in my continued humanity or not, I can hardclear Uber by having visited them successfully Last Night. Even if I wanted to do a thought exercise of if Uber really was the Headliner, and we're just top tier schemers/improv actors here, that means that Town still has both their Night Nurse and Goth alive and well, as well as having a Hookup via Ara. Let's say I get us to Inspect Aria Today, who ends up flipping Goth or being another power role of Town's. This alone would confirm that both Uber and myself are Coven, right? And with 2:7 numbers and no way to convert Tonight (as I would not even have my +1 bond with Uber in this scenario – not that having it would matter all too much – so I couldn't trigger a Date With Death with anybody), the best we could do is have Uber kill somebody as opposed to upgrade me, bringing numbers down to 2:6 in "our" best case scenario. After that, Uber would be voted and bring us into a Night with a hypothetical 1:6, following Day being 1:5 if all goes accordingly. But at that point, am I not just outed as Screamer, and easily voted off by the five Townspeople remaining? There just isn’t any other way to cut it from the way I see it, y'know?
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Godfather
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Post by Otisander on Sept 26, 2023 14:43:09 GMT -8
Doesn't converting happen after dating, though? That's what I got from the order of operations post, please correct me if wrong!! Night activity from Dating to Role Actions can happen Narratively/Flavor-wise in any order, but in terms of mechanics, it would resolve last. It's how Uber's attempt to rickroll me N1 could happen after the Headliner and Goth already came through (namely while I was sat on my floor staring into space for a solid hour or so). Trip playing spooky sounds from presumably the street and Steex's visit likely happened while I was out playing Honeymoon•Un•Deux•Trois to no one but the night air on Ash Street or something (unless all three were crammed like sardines into my fire escape at the same time and just did not pay any mind to that).
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Post by Ariyeli on Sept 26, 2023 14:48:15 GMT -8
I'm having one HECK of a day, and I'm down to my last checks half of a braincell. But I'll pop in rq to say that I am NOT the Headliner, y'all are a bit off, and investigating me would probably be a mistake. Also, I'm not sure what's going on with my math here, but something is Not adding up. I just...don't know what it is. I'd really love to hear more from you Aria!!! The thing is that if you are town, you are in the best position in the game to help us figure out who the vampire is, hence your thoughts being extremely important right now!! For a couple of questions, what in our logic is off and why is investigating you a mistake? If you are town then you would not die, after all, so being investigated would be extremely safe for you!!! If something's not adding up, well then, when you have time let's discuss it and try to figure out what isn't! What I mean is that I know who I am, and given what I know, then someone's not telling the truth about their night action, either last night or on previous nights. Maybe even multiple people. Though I'm not sure who or why. I mean, obviously one of these Hypothetical Somebodies is our Headliner, but I don't think everyone who's been untruthful is? And by "Investigating me would be a mistake," I mean "We would basically be handing the Headliner a free conversion if they live through tomorrow."
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Post by beex on Sept 26, 2023 14:56:00 GMT -8
hey y'all sorry I conked out right after work last night and slept until I started work today, I haven't had time to read back but just real quick wanted to report that yet AGAIN I failed to date heckin rip and also sowwy for calling u stinky trip lmao
I promise as soon as work simmers down I'll come read what has happened etc!!
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Post by Aremypocalypse on Sept 26, 2023 14:56:53 GMT -8
While I agree Bee's a strong candidate for someone having been converted (especially if they really are the goth), I think we really need to focus on voting specifically the headliner out ASAP to decrease the chances of further conversion; even if we miss today, that would still give us tomorrow as another chance, but the sooner the better for us!!!
I'm been going over the logic in my head a million times and I just can't see any way that the headliner could be someone who isn't Aria (outside of Uber tinfoil which I'm ignoring because Quill is right in that we always win in that world), given that everyone else has something which is hard clearing for them!!
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Post by Aremypocalypse on Sept 26, 2023 15:04:06 GMT -8
Doesn't converting happen after dating, though? That's what I got from the order of operations post, please correct me if wrong!! Night activity from Dating to Role Actions can happen Narratively/Flavor-wise in any order, but in terms of mechanics, it would resolve last. It's how Uber's attempt to rickroll me N1 could happen after the Headliner and Goth already came through (namely while I was sat on my floor staring into space for a solid hour or so). Trip playing spooky sounds from presumably the street and Steex's visit likely happened while I was out playing Honeymoon•Un•Deux•Trois to no one but the night air on Ash Street or something (unless all three were crammed like sardines into my fire escape at the same time and just did not pay any mind to that). Now fully headcanonning that all three were crammed into your fire escape at once, you can't stop me!!!!!!!!!! Probably competing against each other in serenading, too!!!! Honestly I really want to have another party at your place for the hype, I'm just not sure if I can find another worthwhile song to serenade people with... will have to spend some time finding something! Anyways yeah mechanically it would happen last, hence if they were planning to date then it'd be fine? I feel like we're starting to say the same stuff and this isn't really going anywhere useful considering we all know neither of the two can't be the headliner anyway, so will leave it at that!!
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Post by Aremypocalypse on Sept 26, 2023 15:20:33 GMT -8
Ariyeli Which of these clears of people not being the headliner do you dispute, is the question? Because again if you're town, it's not enough to vaguely say you think someone could have lied, so here's all the information clearly spelled out if you want to refute any of these! Also we have one confirmed safe inspection to use on town before headliner has any chance of converting again, so why shouldn't the safe inspection be you? Town only stands to gain from inspecting town/eliminating a vampire!! Edit clarification: I mean that if we inspect you today (day 3) and you're town, we still have tomorrow (day 4) to vote off the headliner because the absolute earliest the headliner can convert is tomorrow night (night 5 which is directly after day 4)!
3ptych - cleared through being revealed as night nurse day 2, confirmed by everyone arcania/me - cleared through serenading steex night 3, confirmed by steex Aria - ??? bee - cleared through being goth-saved night 2, confirmed by goth not counterclaiming InsoTheUber - cleared through dating Quill night 3, confirmed by Quill Quillip (PR?) - cleared through being goth saved night 1/serenading Uber night 3, confirmed by goth not counterclaiming/Uber steex - cleared through being serenaded to night 3, confirmed by me/3p stellamalke - cleared through successful dates with Teru nights 1/2, confirmed by Teru Teru - cleared through successful dates with Taylor nights 1/2, confirmed by Taylor Anyone else is also welcome to try and find a loophole in the above clears, as currently I see all of them as being quite watertight through all being confirmed by at least one other person, again ignoring the Uber tinfoil because we always just win in that world!!! Will leave it at that for now, feel like I'm taking over the thread a little and will try to avoid doing that/leave space for the thread to breathe!!
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Post by stellamalke on Sept 26, 2023 15:25:04 GMT -8
Also, I'm not sure what's going on with my math here, but something is Not adding up. I just...don't know what it is. So I have been so insanely sick this week that I've barely been speaking and posting but I just want to make it so clear. I really don't buy Aria as the headliner and I'm kind of apt to agree here. The math isn't mathing and I'm definitely reluctant to go ahead and townclear pretty much anyone outsider of Teru, Uber, and Quill right now. What's nice is we all only have one piece of the puzzle so it's down to sitting down and figuring out if our pieces fit together, and it doesn't seem like one is. I wanna read the thread more but. Yeah. Just gonna agree here. I mean like, that being said? I'd probably vote to investigate Aria tonight because it's the most logical conclusion, but I'm also not going to be surprised if Aria comes up clean.
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Post by jijeex on Sept 26, 2023 19:51:56 GMT -8
If the math isn't mathing then there has to be a logical explanation as to how. You can't exactly cheat math. Right now I'm not seeing how anyone else can be HL due to all the different dating and goth save clears across three nights.
EDIT: Really the only other possible explanation is Uber HL and Quil convert last night, but I don't know how I feel about that. Their thread behavior doesn't add up.
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Post by Chrysuberths on Sept 26, 2023 20:29:55 GMT -8
If the math isn't mathing then there has to be a logical explanation as to how. You can't exactly cheat math. Right now I'm not seeing how anyone else can be HL due to all the different dating and goth save clears across three nights. EDIT: Really the only other possible explanation is Uber HL and Quil convert last night, but I don't know how I feel about that. Their thread behavior doesn't add up. if I was the headliner that'd ve kinda cool because that'd mean i actually played evil good enough to thoroughly throw people off my track, but i also would not have made the play of faking a date with Quil. 1) that's super big brain and I would never think of it, the time was 9 at night and my brain shuts off at 8 lmao 2) I personally believe the amount of flavor I've been able to give should "soft confirm" the fact that Quil and I dated, neither of us have been successful before so it'd be less likely that if we were faking, that we'd be giving nearly as much flavor
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Post by Otisander on Sept 26, 2023 20:47:14 GMT -8
Well, don't under sell my scheming prowess here~
In seriousness though, I think the main thing stopping us from having schemed the date is because I genuinely do not type fast enough to be able to communicate a scheme plan to you in Discord and then hop on here and post. Especially because (going by Forum times), I got my post up 19 minutes after rollover (says it went up at 11:30PM my time, my post reads at 11:49PM my time), which is genuinely pretty fast for my standards. I would not have had time to scheme with you and then also crank out post in sub-20 minutes, because if I did I would not be sat making walls for like two to four hours at a time.
Well, that and the fact that while it could work to save Uber from the chopping block for Today, it kinda immediately dooms our game for good by broadcasting our allegiance in such a transparent way – the better play to be made would be if I continued my sus of Aria without having claimed to have visited Uber, as I was already looking at Aria Yesterday while I was still confirmably Town on account of Goth save & no convert, in order to have plausible deniability of being involved with/converted by Uber. I generally think further ahead than that, after all.
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Post by jijeex on Sept 26, 2023 22:43:17 GMT -8
Hm. Well if Aria insists that inspecting her is a mistake that will, in her words, hand HL a free conversion, how would Uber or Quil feel about being inspected in her stead? Not insisting we should do it, but I'm throwing out alternatives in case we need them.
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Godfather
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Post by Otisander on Sept 26, 2023 23:06:15 GMT -8
Between myself and Uber, I think that I would be the one to give the most info to Town in light of being Inspected, so. I suppose if we don't vote either Aria or (slightly less preferably) Bee, us voting on Me isn't all too bad for us. Just kinda stinks because Irrefutable Role Reveal and all, but I am a decent option for a vote nonetheless. After all, I did crunch numbers on if we failed to vote the HL Today and they are very promising numbers for us, so it's not like we can't afford a second misvote.
And besides, with how highly, Highly likely we'd be to nail Headliner Tomorrow, I think y'all should be capable of sailing smoothly to victory with or without me – so I'm not too worried about being made a kill target Tonight or anything*. Especially since the Screamer can only convert via a Date With Death, which can be avoided entirely by Townspeople simply not visiting them, which because of how certain I am that the Headliner converted Bee (free convert on the Goth too tempting), just means that Bee shouldn't be targeted for a Date (or at least not if you already have +1 Bond with them) moving forward.
*so like, even if I get Inspected, don't feel obligated to put a protect on me, Trip. Y'all should be able to handle it just fine so long as the Coven itself doesn't grow, which should be individually avoidable from now on.
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Post by jijeex on Sept 27, 2023 0:38:58 GMT -8
Correct me if I'm misremembering, but afaik when the Headliner spends one night to upgrade a Groupie, the upgraded vamp's power can immediately be used, right? Like they don't have to wait another night to use it?
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Godfather
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Post by Otisander on Sept 27, 2023 0:44:27 GMT -8
That's correct, the newly promoted Groupie(/former Groupie I guess?) gets to act right away as their new role.
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